Asset price volatility and banks

This paper examines the operation of Diamond–Dybvig banks when depositors have access to the asset market. Previous studies have shown that banks are redundant in this environment since it is impossible to prevent the strategic withdrawals. This paper shows that the strategic withdrawals can be prevented if the market risk, due to asset price volatility, is considered. Banks provide deterministic returns to the depositors since the aggregate withdrawals are predictable, and therefore, banks can choose the portfolio such that no asset liquidation is involved. However, an individual consumer with stochastic liquidity need is vulnerable to the price volatility if he holds the asset directly. Therefore, banks improve the consumers’ welfare by providing the insurance against not only the liquidity shock but also the market risk. Banks are not redundant.     

Structuring an effective human error intervention strategy selection model for commercial aviation

Flight safety cannot be compromised. Thus, commercial airlines should constantly develop safety management strategies to mitigate the diverse hazardous factors in flight operations. Given the constraint of organizational resource, a commercial airline may not have sufficient resources to implement all the necessary strategies simultaneously. This study uses a well-structured process to develop a qualitative evaluation model that will enable airlines to identify human errors and select an intervention strategy with the highest success potential. To clarify the decision problem, the Human Factors Intervention Matrix framework is utilized to construct the decision hierarchy. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is then used to attain the priorities of potential alternative strategies for various unsafe acts. Finally, Zero-One Goal Programming models are formulated to select an optimal portfolio based on the specific target and the available organizational resources. An empirical study is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed model. According to the results of the combined model, an optimal portfolio, including the intervention approaches of organizational/administrative, human/crew, and operational/physical environment, can remediate four unsafe acts, namely, decision errors, skill-based errors, perceptual errors, and violations, under resource constraints of the organization.     

Tit for tat and big steps: The case of Swedish banks’ internationalization 1961–2010

This study examines four major Swedish banks’ internationalization process patterns during the period 1961–2010. The study complements earlier studies by also considering the banks’ levels of market commitment. One objective is to determine if ‘Tit for tat’-behaviour seen in earlier studies of Swedish banks still prevails after the deregulation. Adding to earlier studies, this study also considers the level of market activities and commitments. A secondary purpose is to examine how the financial crisis has affected the banks with reference to the banks’ internationalization patterns. The empirical study is based on archival data on the studied banks’ foreign operations. The results show that the banks’ behaviour follows ‘Tit for tat’-behaviour but that the internationalization has accelerated after the deregulation, hence being carried out with ‘big steps’ rather than small steps. The analysis also shows that the mimetic behaviour is complemented by other types of internationalization behaviours. The differences in bank internationalization also mean that the effect of a financial crisis varies depending on how the banks have internationalized.     

Is ex-post credit risk affected by the cycles? The case of Italian banks

The objective of this research is to empirically examine if both credit and business cycle affect the ex-post credit risk (i.e. non-performing loans) in the banking system of Italy for the period 1995Q1–2014Q1. The increase in NPLs post-2008 has put into question the robustness of many European banks and the stability of the whole sector. It still remains a serious challenge, especially in Italy which is one of the countries that hit by the financial crisis. By employing fixed and random effects and a dynamic GMM estimation as econometric methodologies I find results that underline common causes for NPLs. Higher NPLs in Italy are mostly due to worse macroeconomic conditions (i.e. bad phase of business cycle) and due to excess credit. Through a Granger causality test, my arguments found even more support. Such findings can be helpful when designing macro-prudential as well as NPL resolution policies.     

The emergence of home-based accommodations in Iran: A study of self-organization

This paper examines the Iranian home-based accommodation sector using the theory of self-organization. With the aim of identifying the sector's organizing principles, interviews were conducted with the accommodation operators, providing 117 statements which were linked based on their key ideas and/or words. Using UCINET6, a network diagram of five organizing principles were identified: collective identity, balanced legitimacy, local embeddedness, mindful market, and networked finance. While the combination of these organizing principles is interpreted within the Iranian context, broad assumptions can be inferred. It is speculated that a collective aiming to organize itself needs to be considerate of its interactions with members of the collective, the authoritative body, the local community, the market, and capital. Additionally, each separate organizing principle might have relevance for small businesses in various industries. The study contributes to the commercial home and home-based accommodation literature while also providing insights into tourism development in Iran. Furthermore, the method used to identify organizing principles is considered novel and can be used with other collectives.     

Japan's financial crises and lost decades

In this paper, we explore the role of financial intermediation malfunction in macroeconomic fluctuations in Japan. To this end we estimate, using Japanese data, a financial accelerator model in which the balance sheet conditions of entrepreneurs in a goods-producing sector and those of a financial intermediary affect macroeconomic activity. We find that shocks to the balance sheets of the two sectors have been quantitatively playing important role in macroeconomic fluctuations by affecting lending rates and aggregate investments. Their impacts are prominent in particular during financial crises. Shocks to the entrepreneurs’ balance sheets have played a key role in lowering investment in the bubble burst during the early 1990s and in the global financial crisis during the late 2000s. Shocks to the financial intermediaries’ balance sheets have persistently lowered investment throughout the 1990s.     

短期融资券市场效率研究——基于价差分解的视角

在完全有效市场条件下,信用风险是反映信用类债券特征的最基本信息,也是决定价差的关键因素。本文通过对中国信用类债券中短期融资券的价差分解发现,虽然信用风险显著影响短期融资券定价,但市场风险才是影响其价差的最主要因素。此外,市场流动性不足降低了市场运行效率,导致流动性溢价总体为负。上述研究结果表明我国短期融资券市场化的定价机制虽已初步形成,但市场效率总体仍然偏低。     

Effects of non-aeronautical activities at airports on the public transport access system: A case study of Zurich Airport

Many planning authorities and airports study measures to increase public transport use for airport ground access and egress. At the same time, an increase in real estate development at and around airports is occurring, both due to airports seeking new revenue possibilities and other developers attempting to profit from high value locations. This paper considers non-aeronautical activities at large airports, largely commercial centres and transit hubs, as land uses that have the potential to improve the situation for operating public transport services. In order to assess potential benefits and disadvantages, four research questions are considered: (1) Can the additional travel volume reach levels at which it has a significant impact? (2) To what extent do non-aeronautical activities influence the public transport access system? (3) Is the resulting demand distribution better or worse regarding peaking behaviour? (4) Is there a potential for the resulting overall demand to bring about capacity shortages?A case study is conducted at the airport of Zurich, Switzerland, which finds that non-aeronautical activities in the direct airport vicinity have led to a situation where the operation of public transport services is much more viable due to overall higher passenger numbers and a more even distribution throughout the day. It is concluded that locating non-aeronautical activities at airports can, in addition to providing commercial benefits to developers, lead to a situation where improved public transport services become feasible.     

我国商业银行资产证券化研究

资产证券化起始于上世纪70年代,孵化于美国金融市场,经过几十年的发展,已经成为国际资本市场发展最快、最具生命力的金融工具。资产证券化对于金融市场快速发展的中国同样具有重要意义,有利于优化金融市场结构、增加社会融资渠道,加深金融要素的流通,深化金融领域的创新。本文通过分析资产证券化在我国的发展历程,提出了我国商业银行资产证券化的必要性。     

Bank distress prediction: Empirical evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

In this paper we apply a simple hazard model to develop an early warning system of bank distress in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Specifically, we identify a set of leading indicators of bank distress that are used subsequently to predict the probability of bank failure in these countries. The investigation covers a wide set of bank level variables and other variables including the influence of bank management, competition, diversification, ownership and regulation. Similar to the previous empirical evidence, we found that good management lowers the likelihood of distress. Moreover, competition and diversification were found to be bad for the health of banks. This result is consistent with some empirical evidence on diversification; however, it contradicts the bulk of literature on competition, which suggests a negative influence on the probability of distress. The ownership structure and the capital requirement index were uninformative. Similar to the previous literature, the institutional development index was statistically relevant predictor. The bank specific and other CAMEL type variables as well as the systematic shocks in the financial and macroeconomic environment were all found to be in line with the findings of related empirical studies. Finally, we find that by conditioning on the relevant covariates, a simple hazard model has performed fairly well in predicting bank distress in the GCC countries.